This got posted as a question on reddit. Below is my answer.
China is an empire. The definition characteristic of an empire is extracting resources from the edges to the centre.
Eventually you hit a limit and need to extend the edge. Taiwan is rich and full of loot. It would also burnish the shine of the China leadership, which like all dictatorships, is strong but brittle. They need to show they can continue to bring wealth to the centre, and extending the border, and capturing more wealth for those that want it is a seemingly good way to do it.
And it would be a swift and easy victory...for those telling the leadership want they want to hear because their own value and wealth depends on telling the emperor what he wants to hear.
Why yes, this IS what happened to Russia in Ukraine. And the US in Iraq. And Russia AND the US AND the British Empire in Afghanistan. And France under Napoleon pretty much everywhere. And Germany in Russia, TWICE.
Another defining characteristic of Empires is Imperial Over-reach.
Also, this why in the Universe of Warhammer 40000,
the Imperium of Man didn't try and conquer the Eye of Terror. Because
like the sun never sets on the British Empire, British Men cannot
conceive of the Empire failing to conquer someone else.
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Thank you for the comment on my blog! May your dice never desert you and your tactical abilities be as good as your posting is! Never stop posting.